Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
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